MEDIA AND POLICY: An Application of Cox Proportional Hazard Model to Evaluate Population Policy of Pakistan


Muhammad KASHIF*, Alvina Sabah IDREES** and Raees ASLAM***


In developing countries like Pakistan, the family planning program has been the principal instrument of a population policy to influence fertility behaviour and preferences. For effective implementation of such programmes, media plays a crucial role to bring awareness among people. Through information sharing, media helps restructure society’s preferences to bring them in line with the set policy targets. This study undertakes the analysis in retrospect by evaluating the Population Policy of Pakistan 2002. The use of family planning methods was increased and incentivised through media coverage. The Cox proportional hazard model is applied to explore the extent to which the policy remained effective in influencing fertility behaviour by an increase in contraceptive use through a mass media campaign. The childbearing dynamics of women is analysed using data from Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) 2012-13. The women’s age group included in the analysis is between 15 to 32 years. The data is segregated into 3-year calendar periods, divided into six groups, ranging over the time period from 1995 to 2012. The indicator of media coverage has been used to capture policy intervention while controlling for women’s education, wealth quintile index, and rural urban divide. Results show that the policy of 2002 effectively increased the birth gaps only for a higher order of childbirth and mass media played an important role in bringing awareness about contraceptive usage.

Keywords: Demography, Fertility, Family Planning, Media.

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