DEMAND PROJECTIONS AND CONSUMPTION PATTERN ANALYSIS AT PROVINCIAL LEVEL IN PAKISTAN

Hafsa HINA* and Seyyda Taskeen ABBAS**

Fluctuations in income and population are imperative elements for changing the structure of food demand. In perspective of the significance of food demand examination for provinces of Pakistan, this study investigates the demand elasticities and household consumption behaviour both at the provincial and national level in order to plan the future level of demand for certain food items. The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model is applied on the Household Integrated Income and Consumption Survey (HIICS) 2015-2016 for demand analysis. The results show that socioeconomic factors such as household size, profession and literacy of head play a significant role in explaining the pattern of food demand along with prices and income. The per capita household projected demand from 2016 to 2040 shows that Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) will exceed Punjab province in terms of total per capita consumption of all food items with the passage of time.

Keywords: Demand Projection, Consumption Pattern, AIDS, SUR