Najma Ali SOOMRO,* Suresh Kumar Oad RAJPUT,** and Ishfaque Ahmed
SOOMRO*
Abstract
Predictions regarding returns and price movements in financial markets can be made using online search engines, which track the sentiments of individual investors. This study aims to analyse how the sentiments of Bitcoin investors impact changes in the American stock market returns. The Bitcoin sentiment index was created to benchmark the sentiments of Bitcoin investors from 2013 to 2018. This index is built by analysing terms from leading business magazines and online journals. Such an index measures potential investors’ sentiments about Bitcoin and how those sentiments impact S&P returns. We use the ordinary least squares method to analyse this. It was found that BSI has a negative impact on S&P returns. Furthermore, the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is used to determine the relationship between these economic time series. VAR results indicated a significant positive impact of S&P returns on BSI, while BSI could not predict S&P returns. Consequently, it can be concluded that S&P returns cause changes in BSI. Recognising that Bitcoin sentiment can offer valuable insights and guidance for retail investors during market downturns, much like the S&P 500. By tracking changes in the S&P 500, analysts can anticipate shifts in cryptocurrency market sentiment and take preventative measures when needed. Understanding this relationship is crucial for assessing systemic risks, as volatility in traditional markets can impact the crypto space.
