FORECASTING WITHOUT THEORY: Pakistan’s Export of Cotton and Rice


The paper analyses the behavior of Pakistan’s commodity exports over time and makes medium term projections about the quantity and value of basmati, other rice and raw cotton. Our results, based upon careful statistical analysis and detailed study of the individual commodities reveal an impressive trend in the growth of these exports. It is projected that during the next five years the quantities exported of basmati, ‘other’ rice and raw cotton will grow at an annual rate of 11 per cent, 9 per cent and 4 per cent respectively. Our forecasts are relatively more optimistic than s~me alternate projections made so far.

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